No Prize, No Peace: Trump May Declare Norway an Enemy if He Doesn’t Win Nobel Peace Prize, Analyst Says
With just hours to go before the Nobel Peace Prize announcement, Norway finds itself nervously anticipating an unlikely diplomatic storm — one fueled not by geopolitics, but by Donald Trump’s ego.
According to The Guardian, Norwegian officials are on edge as speculation grows that the former U.S. president, long obsessed with winning the Peace Prize, might lash out if his name isn’t called. Few in Oslo expect Trump to win, but many worry he won’t take the loss quietly.
“Donald Trump is taking the U.S. in an extreme direction,” said Kirsti Bergstø, leader of Norway’s Socialist Left Party. “When a president is this volatile and authoritarian, we have to be prepared for anything.”
That “anything” could range from angry social media tirades to more serious repercussions — such as Trump publicly targeting Norway simply because an independent Nobel Committee based in Oslo doesn’t give him the prize.
“The Norwegian government has no say in who wins,” Bergstø noted. “But I’m not sure Trump knows that.”
Trump’s fixation with the Nobel Peace Prize stretches back years. He’s repeatedly claimed he deserves it, while railing that Barack Obama won “for nothing.” In July, Trump even phoned Norway’s finance minister — and former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg — to ask about the award.
At the United Nations last month, he boasted that he had ended seven “unendable wars” and deserved the honor. But as Arild Hermstad, leader of Norway’s Green Party, put it: “Peace prizes are earned through sustained commitment, not social media tantrums.”
Hermstad acknowledged Trump’s role in helping broker a recent Gaza ceasefire but said that “one late contribution does not erase years of enabling violence and division.”
The Nobel Committee, meanwhile, had already made its decision days before the ceasefire, making any attempt by Trump to link the two events meaningless.
Analysts warn that Trump’s response could extend beyond insults. “He’s so unpredictable,” said columnist Harald Stanghelle. “It could become a challenging situation.”
Stanghelle suggested Trump might retaliate with punitive tariffs, renewed pressure on NATO, or even label Norway an adversary — all over a prize he doesn’t control. “It’s very difficult to explain that the committee is independent when some leaders don’t respect that concept.”
If Trump were somehow chosen, Stanghelle added, “it would be the biggest surprise in the history of the Nobel Peace Prize.”
Nina Græger, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, said Trump’s chances are slim to none. Leading contenders include Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, the Committee to Protect Journalists, and the Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom.
“While Trump deserves some credit for helping end the Gaza war, his overall record doesn’t align with the Nobel’s ideals,” Græger said, pointing to his attacks on democratic institutions and his bizarre attempt to “buy” Greenland from Denmark.
Most world leaders would shrug off a missed Nobel nod. Donald Trump, however, is not most world leaders. And in Oslo, a country known for calm diplomacy and quiet pragmatism, officials are steeling themselves for the fallout of one man’s bruised ego.
If Trump’s name isn’t announced, Norway may find itself — absurdly — declared the next “enemy of the people.”