Democrats’ win in Wisconsin court race also is a big loss for Elon Musk

Billionaire Elon Musk has had a significant influence on reshaping the federal government under President Donald Trump, but he just learned that even his money can’t override political realities.

Musk and his allies poured $21 million into flipping Wisconsin’s Supreme Court to conservative control, only to see their candidate suffer a decisive 10-point defeat on Tuesday. That margin was even wider—by four points—than that of the other Republican on the statewide ballot, who had no ties to Musk’s spending.

Republicans were already bracing for a tough battle, given Democrats’ consistent turnout in lower-profile elections during the Trump era. But Musk, known for defying expectations in both business and politics, charged ahead anyway.

Deploying the same high-spending tactics that helped Trump secure victory in November, Musk turned the Wisconsin race into the most expensive judicial contest in history. While the election drew an unusually high turnout for April, it ended much like the last one—a double-digit loss for conservatives in the 2023 court race.

“Today, Wisconsinites rejected an unprecedented attack on our democracy, our elections, and our Supreme Court,” declared victorious liberal candidate Susan Crawford in her speech Tuesday night. “Justice is not for sale.”

The contest served as a major test of Musk’s political reach. Since joining Trump’s administration, Musk has implemented aggressive cost-cutting policies that have gutted federal agencies, drawing sharp criticism from legal experts who argue he has overstepped constitutional limits. Meanwhile, Trump has expanded his executive power and targeted his political enemies.

But Tuesday’s results underscored a persistent truth: presidents’ parties typically lose ground in midterm elections. So far, Trump’s administration has not managed to shield the GOP from the force of voter opposition.

“The idea that Trump’s actions won’t hurt Republicans in November is clearly exaggerated,” said Charles Franklin, a law professor and pollster at Marquette University. “This election moved the needle by maybe a point, but the trend is unmistakable.”

Beyond Wisconsin, there are signs of a shifting political tide. Republican-held congressional districts in Florida have seen increasingly tight special election results, further signaling a challenging electoral landscape for the GOP.

Trump personally endorsed conservative candidate Brad Schimel in what became a nationalized battle over voting rights and redistricting—both of which could have major implications in Wisconsin’s crucial 2028 presidential election. But Musk’s involvement amplified the stakes even more.

“A seemingly small election could decide the fate of Western civilization,” Musk declared on his social media platform, X, in a final plea to voters. “I believe it matters for the future of the world.”

America PAC, the super PAC bankrolled by Musk, spent over $6 million mobilizing door-to-door canvassers across the state, mirroring its strategy from last fall’s presidential battleground push. But despite the heavy investment, the effort fell flat. Crawford outperformed expectations even in areas where America PAC had been most active.

Take Sauk County, for example: Crawford carried it by 10 points, even though Trump had won it by a slim margin in November. And in Brown County, home to Green Bay, Musk’s rally on Sunday drew 2,000 attendees. Trump had won the county by 7 points last year. But on Tuesday, it flipped for Crawford.

Musk’s response was defiant. “The long con of the left is corruption of the judiciary,” he posted on X. Later, he suggested the loss was part of a bigger strategy, writing, “Sometimes losing a battle positions you better for the war.”

Some Republicans questioned Musk’s approach, wondering if his aggressive intervention did more harm than good.

“If the odds are against you, is it wise to make yourself the face of the fight and do last-minute rallies that just highlight that?” asked GOP strategist Marc Short, who previously advised former Vice President Mike Pence.

For many Wisconsin voters, Musk was front and center in their decision-making.

“There’s already enough chaos with the Trump administration, and now it feels like Musk is just trying to buy elections,” said Kenneth Gifford, a 22-year-old college student in Milwaukee. “I want a real, functioning democracy.”

Others weren’t necessarily swayed by Musk’s involvement but were uneasy about the vast sums being spent.

Jim Seeger, a 68-year-old retiree in Eau Claire, voted for Schimel because he wants Republicans to retain their grip on Wisconsin’s congressional maps. However, he lamented the role of money in the race. “It’s ridiculous that we have to spend this much—especially for a judicial election,” he said.

Musk didn’t just funnel money into ads. He also attempted to directly influence turnout in ways that sparked legal controversy. He paid three voters $1 million each for signing a petition aimed at boosting participation. The state’s Democratic attorney general sued to stop the payments, but Wisconsin’s Supreme Court declined to rule on the case due to a procedural issue.

Musk also incentivized campaign efforts: his organization offered $20 to anyone who signed up to knock on doors for Schimel and posted a selfie as proof. Voters who signed an anti-“activist judge” petition were promised $100, with an additional $100 for every person they referred.

Democrats eagerly framed Musk as a villain in the race.

“People don’t want Elon Musk buying election after election,” said Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Ben Wikler on Monday. “If he gets away with it here, he’ll do it nationwide.”

For now, at least, Wisconsin voters have drawn the line.